Rob Manfred, Majoke League Baseball’s tough-guy commissioner who took away the Astros’ dessert for two weeks after Houston cheated its way to the 2017 World Series title, has guaranteed us there will be baseball this year.
“I can tell you unequivocally we are gonna play Major League Baseball this year,” Manfred said.
That’s a pretty definitive statement for someone who is presiding over yet another round of clown college-quality negotiations between owners and players. If it takes an imposition from the top of a 50-game (or 10-game, or whatever) schedule that half the players boycott, Manfred is going to do it. And as the millionaires and billionaire squabble over control of the game and their shares of a smaller – but still substantial – pile of money, the biggest loser in all of this is a sport that is facing an uncertain future, as its fan base ages toward irrelevance with advertisers, and the feast of entertainment options around it lures more and more young people away from it.
Manfred’s proclamation may have cheered some baseball fans, but the idea of a 50-game sprint to a bloated playoff tournament is as appetizing as a hot dog that has endured eight innings in the brackish waters of a vendor’s tank. Some people may watch. Many won’t, and when baseball tries to reopen fully next spring, it will do so in front of fewer fans and after having taken one more step toward an irrelevance that could have been avoided, or at least prolonged.
A 2017 study by Sports Business Journal found that the average baseball fan was 57 years old, seven years older than the average NFL fan and 15 ahead of the typical NBA partisan. That was three years ago, and you can bet MLB’s fan base hasn’t skewed younger since then. And since baseball isn’t too keen on filling up commercial breaks with advertisements for Consumer Cellular, Colonial Penn Life Insurance and prostate-care supplements, the graying fan base isn’t too encouraging. Those old-folks promotions don’t generate the same revenue as do ads for cars, fast-food joints and reality shows.
According to the study, only 24 percent of baseball fans at the time were under 35. And since Little League participation has dropped consistently since the 1990s, it’s unlikely American youngsters are going to develop into rabid MLB fans in the coming years, thereby increasing that statistic. Baseball can institute robot umpires, seven-inning games, ghost runners on second at the beginning of extra innings and dress its players up like characters from “Stranger Things”, and it still won’t matter. The game’s fan base is aging. Its languid pace doesn’t appeal to our shorter-attention-span culture. So, what’s the absolute worst thing to do in that situation?
Piss off the base.
El Hombre has been quite clear about his preferred side in the ongoing struggle between the owners and players, so he isn’t going to revisit that subject. However, as baseball refuses to find a way back onto the field in a way that will satisfy fans, it risks obsolescence. Had it found a way to return by July 4, the sport could have had an entire month’s head start before the NBA and NHL resumed play and even beaten NFL training camps off the starting line. Further, it would have been played during its conventional window, something the basketball and hockey folks couldn’t have done. It’s still hard to imagine folks getting excited about the Stanley Cup finals in August.
Earlier this week, the MLB Players Association presented a counteroffer to the owners that should serve as a basis for responsible negotiations that produce a season that can be considered legitimate, not some 50-game lark. Should the two sides come to an agreement, they will each suffer some short-term pain, in return for a bit of long-term security. Baseball’s aging base may be loyal, but it has a breaking point. If baseball messes up this year, even the old timers won’t be back in the same numbers. Do the math: as the current target audience ages and falls away, and the younger demographic loses interest, the long-term prognosis for baseball isn’t too attractive. That doesn’t mean the sport is doomed tomorrow or even in 10 years, especially since 60 is the new 40 – or at least that’s what El Hombre hopes. But any business that insists on alienating its best customers will eventually wither. If MLB teams don’t get onto the field pretty damn quickly, they will lose the one group of fans on which they have been counting.
And remember, there’s a “Rockford Files” marathon on TV next week. That’s a heckuva lot better than a Rockies-Marlins game.
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EL HOMBRE SEZ: The eight rotten NBA teams that have been left out of the playoff hunt – for darn good reason – are upset that playing no games this summer will create a huge layoff that will hurt them next season. Here’s a news flash: the lack of competition won’t be the major culprit; their awful rosters will be. But since El Hombre is a generous soul, he proposes the NBA stage The Crap Tournament, which pits the eight roundball disasters against each other. Only there should be one catch: the losing teams advance in the best-of-three series. That way, fans will know who the true worst squad is. Put everything you have on the Knicks…In other NBA news, the league has floated the concept of a condensed 2020-21 season that would start Dec. 1 and squeeze all 82 games into a time period that would allow for an ending close to the traditional conclusion of the season, and one that would allow for players to compete for the U.S. in the Tokyo Olympics, now scheduled to begin July 23 of next year. That would lead to more back-to-backs. There might even be some back-to-back-to-back gauntlets for teams, or as the Knicks fans will refer to them, “stink-stank-stunk.”…Now that NASCAR has banned Confederate battle flags from its racetracks, the big question is how stridently the racing organization will police its new edict. Should it apply the same zero-tolerance policy that it does to those who try to sell bootleg apparel, it will do just fine. One more thing about the flags: They represent a rebellion against the United States that failed. When you lose a war, you don’t get to keep your symbols…Michael Jordan and his team landed a massive, 442.3-pound marlin during a $3 million fishing tournament off the coast of North Carolina. Alas, the creature wasn’t heavy enough to win Jordan any money, and rumor has it the Bulls legend immediately christened it “The Scott Burrell of fish” and lambasted it for not doing enough to help him win…Duke AD Kevin White is concerned that new legislation allowing college athletes to pursue compensation for their names, images and likenesses will force schools to “abandon a model” that has been successful. Let’s hope so. That “model” has allowed colleges – along with coaches and ADs like White – to reap tremendous financial rewards from their athletes’ exploits, while sharing none of the largesse with the athletes. Sure, there is a chance certain schools will establish protocols to ensure some recruits will be able to have more endorsement opportunities than others, but since Duke has hired an outside firm to help it manage the new path, it’s unlikely the Blue Devils will be at a disadvantage. Here’s an idea: When White and his AD friends receive bonuses for teams’ successes at their schools, perhaps they could funnel the money to the players, instead of profiting personally. Think that will happen? Naaahhhh!!!
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YOU GOT A PROBLEM WITH THAT? Once the NBA season re-starts, the Sixers will be counting heavily on Ben Simmons for any playoff success. That’s not good news. Even if Simmons is completely healthy – and a back injury forced him out of action before the league ceased operation due to the coronavirus – he remains an extremely unreliable leader, thanks to his skill set and attitude. The first and most obvious trouble is Simmons’ refusal to develop a reliable outside shot, which makes him more guardable, particularly in playoff settings, when open-court fun evaporates and teams must negotiate the halfcourt. Without a jumper from outside 15 feet, Simmons makes it easier for top teams to contain him in tight confines. Worse is the fact that by not developing the shot, Simmons appears to think his development is complete and that he doesn’t need to improve. That’s no way for a leader to behave, and it raises significant questions about whether he can become the type of player capable of lifting a franchise to the top of the NBA. Simmons has remarkable skill and talent, but it’s imperative that he becomes more complete, or the Sixers will never win a title with him on the roster.
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AND ANOTHER THING: It will be extremely interesting to see whether the NFL’s Invisible Man, who last week released a video expressing contrition for not listening more closely to players’ complaints about racism and for not respecting their protests – which included taking a knee during the playing of the national anthem – will stick by his new stance once the games start this season and team members kneel, raise fists or do something else in protest. Roger Goodell sounds as if he has developed a greater understanding of the issues about which players are angry. But there will be considerable pushback from plenty of populations, including Mr. Twitter himself, who has already weighed in, and some of the NFL owners, who approve Goodell’s salary and who have shown themselves to be no fans of protest, particularly if it upsets fans, political figures or media outlets. Forget that the protests are about police brutality and are not against the flag or armed forces, as those who dislike the activists insist. Goodell will have to make a big decision come exhibition game time, and it’s a good bet he will bow to external forces and outlaw kneeling. It may make his bosses happy, but it will infuriate the players, 70 percent of whom are black and who are fed up with brutality. The Invisible Man looks good now, but he’s like a rookie who shines during mini-camp. Once the real action starts, things get a lot tougher, and the spring star wilts.
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